'The Korean War is over.' Kim Jong Un begins writing a new story as the first North Korean leader to visit the south
Leaders of North and South Korea met Friday for denuclearization in the DMZ of the peninsula and shook hands across the border before Kim Jong Un made history by stepping on the raised concrete slab. marking the frontier to become the first leader of his dynastic regime to visit the South.
Then Kim, a portly black man in a mao-style suit and tortoiseshell-rimmed glasses, invited South Korean President Moon Jae-in to return to North Korea, the land from where his refugee parents fled south at an UN Supply ship during the Korean War of 1950-53. The two leaders crossed once more to the south, in agreement, before sitting down to negotiate in the peace house of the DMZ, emerging at sunset to declare that the conflict "had ended" and both would work toward "complete denuclearization". from the Korean peninsula. "
"There will be no more war on the Korean peninsula and, therefore, a new era of peace has begun," said a joint statement signed after the talks. Kim Jong Un said that the Koreas are "united in blood as a family and compatriots who can not live apart."
For Moon, getting to this point has been an ambition for life. He helped negotiate the last summit between the leaders of the North and the South, 11 years ago, when he was the chief of staff of then-South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun. Now Moon has the most important job and is accused of persuading Kim to renounce his nuclear weapons and of a Donald Trump hawk administering the time and energy necessary to reach an agreement acceptable to all parties. A White House statement expressed hope that "the talks will achieve progress towards a future of peace and prosperity for the entire Korean Peninsula," and that Trump was looking forward to meeting Kim himself in the coming weeks.
South Korean delegation including President Moon Jae-in and North Korean delegation including Leader Kim Jong Un sit down for the Inter-Korean Summit at the Peace House on April 27, 2018.
Korea Summit Press Pool—Getty Images
As expected, the summit was meticulously choreographed and full of symbolism. An honor guard of Korean soldiers in bright traditional war robes welcomed the leaders, during which Kim seemed a little uncomfortable, panting heavily. But the leaders and their itinerant delegations, seven from South Korea, appeared in good shape once; Nine from the north, including Kim's influential sister, sat down to chat on chairs marked with a map of a united Korea. Kim even tricked Moon into saying that North Korean noodles were popular in the south. He also said he was "willing to go to the Blue House [presidential of South Korea] at any time" if invited, according to Moon's spokesman.
But if the symbolism was a little thick, maybe it was because the substantive results were limited. Both sides agreed to high-level military talks next month, to resume meetings of families separated by the Korean War and for Moon to visit Pyongyang in the fall. But North Korea is subject to new and strict sanctions in the United States after the escalation of missiles and nuclear tests, which means that Moon has little power to offer economic incentives.
Even a formal end to the Korean War, which Moon and Kim announced on Friday, sounds hollow unless the United States is also a party. (The nations remain technically at war when an armistice was signed in place of a peace treaty). The two leaders said they will work to sign a peace treaty this year on the 65th anniversary of the armistice, on July 27, which was originally signed between North Korea, China and the US. UU And no specific details were revealed about how denuclearization would occur.
Read more: What Kim Jong Un really wants from President Trump
"A serious discussion about denuclearization is simply impossible because it is not so much about South Korea but about the United States," Andrei Lankov, a professor of Korean studies at Kookmin University in Seoul, told South Korea's Arirang TV. "South Korea should put pressure on the United States to accept a compromise."
Before the summit, Kim had already promised to finish the missile launches and dismantle his Punggye-ri nuclear testing site. During Friday's discussions, he teased Moon by telling him that "he would no longer interrupt his early morning sleep," referring to his typical morning gun tests. Moon and Kim seemed to be genuinely connected; They enjoyed a long chat while sitting alone on a blue catwalk after a tree-planting ceremony, with nearby microphones that only the surrounding tweeting birds caught.
But few believe that North Korea truly dispenses its nuclear arsenal after decades of perfecting it. At the end of last year, the regime tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICMB) that, it claims, could attack anywhere in the US. UU Continental. "Let's leave denuclearization off the table, it's not going to happen," says Christopher Green, principal investigator of the Korean Peninsula. for the International Crisis Group. "But North Korea may be trying to make a serious change of direction while retaining a nuclear weapon."
While the lives of the 25 million ordinary Northern Koreas are largely irrelevant to Kim, he depends on the backing of 2 million elites, who live mainly in Pyongyang and are increasingly dissatisfied with the nation's leadership, according to South Korea. intelligence. "They are not sure that the state survives, but more than that, they do not feel that their children have too many opportunities for the future," says Green.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's entry in a guestbook at the Peace House in the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas, South Korea, April 27, 2018. The writing reads "A new history starts now. An age of peace, from the starting point of history."
Handout—Reuters
Satisfying Trump enough to ease the sanctions and allow North Korea to prosper will not be easy. While China and EE. UU They agreed last year that the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula should be "complete, verifiable and irreversible", North Korea probably has a different interpretation: a "revolving around diminishing the prominence of nuclear and missile tests in its diplomacy, rather than the complete, verifiable and irreversible disarmament desired by the West, "writes Karl Dewey, a chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defense analyst for Jane's of IHS Markit.
Kim's announcement about the dismantling of Punggye-ri was tempered by reports from Chinese geologists that it had already collapsed, possibly leading to significant radioactive poisoning. In any case, its closure could simply mean that North Korean engineers are satisfied with the design of their nuclear devices and, therefore, no longer need to perform tests, or that a second facility could be established if more refinement.
Read more: What would Korean reunification be like? Five obvious problems to overcome
The challenge facing Moon is to keep the Trump administration engaged, even if the goals change significantly from total disarmament. Trump's new Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and National Security Advisor, John Bolton, have repeatedly insisted that military options remain on the table, despite the total devastation that South Korea and Japan could cause. conventional retaliation, chemical and nuclear of Pyongyang. It may be an easy fruit for Kim to give back to the three Americans that his regime currently holds captives, which gives Trump a small but stimulating ego victory.
Still, Lankov fears that the Trump-Kim summit "does not happen or ends in disaster," because "there is always the possibility that at the last moment President Trump will listen to some of his advisors who will not tell him anything other than denuclearization. immediate nuclear is acceptable. "
The entertaining moon Kim was the easy part. Keeping Trump in a position to improve and transmit the message at the next summit is when the real work will begin..
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